“No problem is settled unless it is settled right” — African proverb
So, we finally have the outlines of a gathering of familiar politicians congregating under a relatively small political party, the African Democratic Congress, ADC. It is not, strictly speaking, a coalition of parties, although the congregation would see it as the trigger for monumental shift, with them as architects, builders and occupiers.
The notable names who moved, with or without luggage into the ADC have worked hard; even made huge gambles, but at this stage they represent only a tiny element of a seemingly treacherous and chaotic path to 2027. Right now they are in another party. The next few months will show whether they gambled well or missed the way. Either way, a major push to reinforce the stressed foundations of our democratic system is being made.
The APC administration will do well not to treat this initiative lightly. If it relies on the perception that it has a promiscuous opposition it had severely damaged, its thinkers should invite attention to its many vulnerabilities, not least being its tendency to listen only to itself. It does not accept that its back is ever against a wall, and it is a poor reader of signals. It may still not be aware that the opposition merely blew a whistle which sent his party to panic stations.
APC’ opposition had been desperately looking for a plan ‘B’. Politicians starved of power are most pathetic beings. They needed a platform strong enough to withstand vicious, crippling attacks; one that will give them enough cover and support to deny APC a second term. APC had chased them around, subverting here, sabotaging there, until a few of them bought a house with plans to turn it into a castle. It will be well advised to avoid complacency over ownership of the humble abode they occupy now: they may spend sleepless nights yet, dealing with contesting ownership.
Now the nation waits to see how this first step will turn into a winning race. There will be many challenges and turns in this largely uncharted race. For the ruling party, the game plan is not difficult: destroy any chance of a real collaboration that will represent a people’s movement against the APC in 2027. It has wealth, and is still building a war chest this country has never seen, to placate and buy off angry voters and all processes and institutions that will determine winners. Its real problems will show when unavoidable squabbles over intra-party matters such as nominations and other ambitions break the party at precisely the moment it needs to seal its haul and take it to the elections.
For the politicians who think they represent the spearhead of this revolution, their tasks are many. First, those among them who have strong presence in their parties, like Atiku and Obi, will be judged by who else followed them into ADC. There is a good chance that these two will damage their parties very badly over their decisions.The rump of PDP will go through an agonising decision over whether to follow Atiku into ADC and be swallowed by an uncertain terrain, or stay behind and salvage pride and the damage of Minister Wike. Atiku will have a tough time convincing his new party to trust him with a ticket, not least because his being a Northener will count against him in 2027. This would have been a good time to lead the search for real solutions, and not to continue to be part of the problem.
Obi and hardened Obedients who may follow him will hope regional politics will give him the presidential ticket to serve out the ‘South’s’ second term and convince the North that he will hand over in 2031. Amaechi will want the same thing, and will hope, in addition, that a registered Northern hostility to core-Igbo presidency will count in his favour. David Mark will hope past service and strong identity politics will give him some clout in a party with plenty of clouts and ambitions, and little room for manouver. Aregbesola will count on defying politics as a plus to give him a fighting chance to the front row. El-Rufai says he has no presidential ambition, but, even believing him at this early stage, he would want an emphatic say in who is who in the new party. His demanding personality and huge resources could compensate for his anaemic following and tainted political profile. There will be defectors of other parties who will demand a say, or they walk out at damaging moments.
It requires no emphasis that Nigeria’s democratic credentials need massive boosting. The administration does not see itself in the ranks of those who agonise over some basic elements of a democratic system: a thriving, free opposition, preserving separation of powers, governing with openness and transparency and improving efficacy of vital institutions of state. Opposing parties have vital roles to play in challenging and keeping the administration on its toes. They can even defeat this administration, but they need to do everything different.
The year 2027 will be a tough election to win or lose.
